Predictions That Got it Terribly Wrong

C. A. Asbrey

As the year draws to a close and we look at the retrospectives on the last year as well as the events anticipated year ahead, we may note that the fortune tellers and astrologers are also given a chance in the media to set out their predictions for next year. Some are fairly obvious, some are out there, but most tend to be general and nebulous. But they’re not the only ones making them. Sociologists, journalists, scientists, and politicians all have had a crack at making them too.

But what about those predictions? How accurate were they? More tellingly, isn’t it more fun to look at the ones that got it all terribly wrong? I don’t mean all the end-of-the-world and catastrophe prophecies. I think the lesser and more mundane failures are a lot more fun, so here a few in no particular order.

One of the most famously laughable statements was made by Darryl Zanuck of 20th Century Fox in 1946, and is right down there with the most spectacularly wrong statements of his century. “Television won’t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.” Currently, television is battling streaming and social media for popularity, but it could be claimed that these still involve staring at a box at home. In 2024 people spend an average of 2.48 watching traditional television or four hours streaming a day, with young people going more online than their parents. Gen Z are watching as little as twenty minutes of traditional TV a day and watching for much shorter periods when they do. Talking of streaming it’s a good time to remind you that Thomas Watson, president of IBM, 1943, said, “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” But one thing’s for sure, people are no longer flocking to the cinema in the way they used to in the forties. In the UK, cinema chains have struggled since the pandemic and are closing venues all over the country. In both countries, cinemas are evolving with special seats, and bolstering their food and beverage offerings to try to make the occasion special enough to leave home for, but regional chains have closed many and small towns have reevaluated their leases. It’s an industry struggling against the tide of readily available entertainment at our fingertips. However, way before television was taking off, cinema was the new kid in the block, and many considered theatre and music hall (vaudeville) as being the thing that would carry on. Charlie Chaplin himself said in 1916, “Cinema is little more than a passing fad.” That said, he certainly did his best to capitalise on it while he could.

Irving Fisher was hailed as the greatest economist the United States had ever produced but he destroyed his credibility in one single statement in 1929 when he said, “stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau“. Unfortunately he said this just before disaster hit, and he tried to dial it back a mere seventy-two hours later, but it was too late. It was clear to everyone that things were going very wrong, and The Wall Street Crash triggered The Great Depression. There must be something in aquatic names as British weather man had a similar fall. Michael Fish was doing his regular spot on the BBC weather when he uttered the fateful phrase, “Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way. Well, if you’re watching, don’t worry, there isn’t!“

The meteorologist then had to appear on TV the next day and explain the fact that Britain had been hit by The Great Storm of 1987, which was the worst storm to hit south east England for three centuries. It caused millions of pounds worth of damage, killed twenty-two people, and even blew down six of the seven oaks that gave Sevenoaks its name. Fish later tried to explain that he had been referring to Florida as a colleague’s mother was going on holiday there, but his problem with that is that he’d been pointing to the UK map on screen when he was talking about a hurricane. It dogged the poor man to his dying day.

Newsweek, the popular magazine, certainly hit a dull note when they made their predictions for the dream holidays for the rich. For the next decade the wealthy did all they could to avoid the place, including faking medical conditions, going to Canada, and becoming perennial students. Where was this haven Newsweek suggested would be the perfect place for safaris? Newsweek had written, “And for the tourist who really wants to get away from it all, safaris in Vietnam.“

“Everyone acquainted with the subject will recognize it as a conspicuous failure.” These are the words of Henry Morton, president of the Stevens Institute of Technology talking about electric light. While his pronouncement did impact the availability of people prepared to invest in the fledgling technology, we all now know that he was about as wrong as he could be. Fortunately, Luckily for his bank account, J.P. Morgan ignored his father, and invested heavily in Edison, eventually financing General Electric, making a fortune in the process.

Stars have frequently been the subject of terrible career projections by others. Marilyn Monroe was advised to get some secretarial skills as she’d never make it as a model, while the Beetles were told by Decca records that “guitar music is on the way out“, and Ray Bloch Musical Director of the Ed Sullivan Show said, “The only thing different is the hair, as far as I can see. I give them a year.” And the iconic Fred Astair got the comment, “Can’t act, can’t sing, can dance a little.”

I suppose it’s easy to be sceptical about up and coming people and industries, but what about the home and the people in it? In 1950, Associated Press writer Dorothy Roe predicted that by the year 2000, all women would be six-feet-tall. Roe used scientific calculations I have no access to, but clearly something was awry. “Her proportions will be perfect, though Amazonian, because science will have perfected a balanced ration of vitamins, proteins, and minerals that will produce the maximum bodily efficiency, the minimum of fat.” In 1950 the average woman was 5’2″ in the UK and US. In 2000 was 5’3″ and 5’4″ respectively. We are all aware of the other great failure related to 2000 in the Millenium Bug that failed to manifest itself. I never really understood the fear of that one myself. What did it matter if a computer thought it was ticking from 1999 to 1900 unless someone explicitly told all the technology that it couldn’t work then? And nobody had, but some chortling computer dudes made a bit of easy money out of it anyway.

I don’t know why 1950 was so full of failed predictions, but the same year Waldemar Kaempffert wrote in the New York Times that the imaginary housewife, whom he nicknamed Jane Dobson, would be able to clean her house with a hose because all her carpets, curtains, flooring would be made of synthetic material. The water would run down a drain in the middle of the floor, hidden under a synthetic rug of course, and she would be able to dry the house with a hot air dryer. This contrasted Edison’s prediction that all the easy-clean surfaces would be made of stainless steel, and that the steel could be made to look like rosewood, mahogany, or any wood people wanted. Of course, in these houses, telephones, the internet, and online shopping would never become popular according to a number of different people.

F.E. Smith, Earl of Birkenhead, stated with confidence in 1922 that working hours would be reduced to only sixteen or twenty-four hours by 2030(of course, only men worked), and that the expanded life span to 150 could cause problems. “How will youths of 20 be able to compete in the professions or business against vigorous men still in their prime at 120, with a century of experience on which to draw”? This was clearly wishful-thinking as he died aged 58 from excessive smoking and drinking. Smith lived in a very male and rarefied world as he imagined the way men could spend their free time as all the men would be able afford to play football, cricket, and tennis. He was particularly keen for everyone to enjoy his own passion for fox hunting. “As wealth increases, we shall all be able to ride to hounds.” How that was supposed to work for working-class men in tenements and cities is beyond me, but I doubt he ever actually spoke to such people in his whole life, let alone understand their lifestyles and priorities. He was optimistic about the use of flying cars allowing skiing trips and the like. Another quirk of Smith’s was the hope that by 2030 men would only own two outfits, one for formal occasions and another for leisurewear. He makes no predictions for women.

It’s probably fitting to end this piece on a prediction that failed for all the wrong reasons. Harlan Ellison’s completely misguided 1952 epic “A Moon Adventure: To the Stars!!! (Note the 1950s hyperbolic exclamation marks) has the lines,

“Not now, Lu,” Shepherd replied. “I’m inventing a method for transmitting and receiving messages using electronic devices. It’s like receiving mail back on Terra, but an electronic version. I’m calling it ‘e-mail,’ and it’s going to revolutionize how we communicate.”

Lucas frowned. “I don’t think ‘e-mail’ will ever become a viable technology.”

Shep sighed and engaged the thrusters, revving the ship past light speed. “You’re right,” he said. “E-mail will never exist.”

We all know that it did exist, but after inventing it, this writer then predicted it never would. It’s worth noting that the book was turned into one of the best-rated episodes of Star Trek ever made.

I hope 2025 brings you everything you could want for you and yours.